Friday, February 4, 2011

Super Bowl Thoughts

The drinks are chilling in the beer fridge. The wing sauce is ready to go. And the snacks are piled high for Sunday's Super Bowl. That can mean only one thing: baseball is just around the corner.

Baseball, once the nation's pastime, has taken a back seat to NFL football as the sports fan's object of desire in the U.S. While over 100,000 people will be in Texas to watch the game in person on Sunday, hundreds of millions of others will watch it on television. In fact, with outsized ticket prices the NFL has become essentially television programming. Like Bones or Mad Men.

Really, when you come down to it, the only difference between Ben Roethlisberger or Aaron Rodgers on one hand and Jon Hamm or January Jones on the other is that the latter two have better tans.

When you compare football and baseball you get the impression, largely driven by Midwestern sports writers, that football is the more egalitarian, American sport, where each season every team has a chance to make the playoffs. Where on "any given Sunday," as the saying goes, a last place team can beat a first place team. This is because the NFL is the master of corporate socialism, where all teams essentially share in the same pot of money.

Baseball, on the other hand, is more like capitalism run amok, the land of the haves and have nots. A sport populated by the hated Yankees, the terminally trendy Red Sox, the uber-hip Dodgers and the lovable Cubs, who have made more money losing over the years than the Washington Generals.

Unlike in football, when the 2011 baseball season opens in six weeks teams like the Washington Nationals, Pittsburgh Pirates, Kansas City Royals and probably six others will take the field knowing the season is already lost. Those same Midwestern sportswriters will intone gravely on SportsCenter that Major League Baseball is hopelessly flawed because of this dichotomy. Oh, why can't they be more like the socialist NFL and redistribute their wealth better so everyone gets a medal at the end of the season, they'll say.

But will that be true?

MLB writer Anthony Castrovince has a nice piece posted on MLB.com showing it's not true. That when it comes to "parity" baseball and football are, well, on par. And in some cases, baseball exceeds the forced equality of the more socialist NFL.

When it comes to Super Bowls and World Series over the last decade, for example, baseball and football have the exact same number of teams - 14 - compete for their sport's championship.

Since 1967, when Super Bowl I was contested, the NFL has crowned 18 different champions. But during the same period, baseball has had 20 separate teams make the ticker-tape parade.

[And forget about basketball. Over the last 30 years the NBA, which practices NFL-style wage controls, has seen an oligarchy of eight teams rotate the championship among themselves. Compare that to baseball. Eight teams have won the championship in the last nine years!]

"Yea," Royals and Pirates fans say. "But it's not all about championships. We'd be happy if our teams could just make the playoffs. But they can't because of those damn Yankees, trendy Red Sox and too-cool-for-school Dodgers."

Time to correct another misconception. Actually, the two sports are about equal when it comes to playoff opportunities. Over the last five years 75% of NFL teams have qualified for the playoffs. During that same period about 73% of baseball's teams have played in October - about the same percentage.

And, it's worth noting, that baseball has a better record when it comes to fresh faces being asked to the big dance. Since 2006 only 37.5% of playoff teams were able to make the baseball playoffs two years in a row. During the same period nearly half of football playoff teams were able to make it back to the tournament - a virtual hegemony.

And when you look at repeat playoff appearances over the last two years the two sports are virtually identical.

"But we're small market teams," whine the Royals and Pirates fans. "Why can't we have revenue sharing and wage controls like the NFL and NBA? We can possibly compete for players like the moneyed swells in New York or Boston or Los Angeles." Well, that's not exactly correct, either. Consider that:

  • Eleven of the last 12 World Series slots have gone to different clubs
  • Only two of the top nine spenders (in terms of Opening Day payroll) in 2010 reached the playoffs last fall
  • And, more importantly, three of the bottom 12 teams in terms of payroll made it to October last season while their rich cousins watched them on TV
Baseball will never be football for one simple reason: 162 games vs. 16. In the NFL weaker teams from the previous year have their failure rewarded with weaker schedules. In a 16-game schedule it's conceivable that some of them sneak into the playoffs. Baseball, on the other hand, plays a 162 game schedule over a full half year. A death march that only the strong survive. Few teams can get by on luck for this long. By August the weak have been killed and eaten.

Thanks to Mr. Castrovince for these numbers. If you live in Pittsburgh or Kansas City, have hope.   If your teams manage smartly and trade wisely, they, too, will be in the playoffs. Look at Tampa Bay. All the money in the world can't make up for poor player personnel decisions, bonehead trades and unstable management.

Meanwhile, leave the difference between baseball and football to George Carlin.

Just thought you might like to know.








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